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Scott Ferson,Mark Burgman: Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology

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Quantitative methods are needed in conservation biology more than ever as an increasing number of threatened species find their way onto international and national "red lists. " Objective evaluation of population decline and extinction probability are required for sound decision making. Yet, as our colleague Selina Heppell points out, population viability analysis and other forms of formal risk assessment are underused in policy formation because of data uncertainty and a lack of standardized methodologies and unambiguous criteria (i. e. , "rules of thumb"). Models used in conservation biology range from those that are purely heuristic to some that are highly predictive. Model selection should be dependent on the questions being asked and the data that are available. We need to develop a toolbox of quantitative methods that can help scientists and managers with a wide range of systems and that are subject to varying levels of data uncertainty and environmental variability. The methods outlined in the following chapters represent many of the tools needed to fill that toolbox. When used in conjunction with adaptive management, they should provide information for improved monitoring, risk assessment, and evaluation of management alternatives. The first two chapters describe the application of methods for detecting trends and extinctions from sighting data. Presence/absence data are used in general linear and additive models in Chapters 3 and 4 to predict the extinction proneness of birds and to build habitat models for plants.

He grew up in a small town in New England in the 1950's, watching lassie, going to church, getting straight A's at school, a scholar destined for success. But he already had a secret, and his public life with family and friends was already a constant round of ventriloquism as he played the joker and pretended to be the same as everyone else. For Paul Monette was gay. BECOMING A MAN is about growing up gay, and about the tyranny and self denial of the closet - one man's struggle, for half his life, to come out. From the white-bread 1950's through the rebellious 1960's to the self-creating 1970's and beyond, it forms a passionately honest and unsparing account of the tortures of living a lie, a naked protrait of one man's fight for freedom in a time of ignorance and bigotry. At the beginning of his junior year at a boys' boarding school, 16-year-old Alex is devastated when he fails to save a drowning friend. When questioned, Alex and his friend Glenn, who was also at the river, begin weaving their web of lies. Plagued by guilt, Alex takes refuge in the library, telling his tale in a journal he hides behind "Moby-Dick." Caught in the web with Alex and Family Maps of Madison County, Arkansas free download pdf Glenn is their English teacher, Miss Dovecott, fresh out of Princeton, who suspects there's more to what happened at the river when she perceives guilt in Alex's writing for class. She also sees poetic talent in Alex, which she encourages. As Alex responds to her attention, he discovers his true voice, one that goes against the boarding school bravado that Glenn embraces. When Glenn becomes convinced that Miss Dovecott is out to get them, Alex must choose between them. "From the Hardcover edition."

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Wim Wenders: Wim Wenders: Places, Strange and Quiet

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Wim Wenders (born 1945) started taking photographs at the age of 7. By the age of 12 he had equipped himself with his own darkroom, and by 17 he had acquired his first Leica. A few years later he was to emerge as a leading light in the New German Cinema movement of the late 1960s, making his feature-length directorial debut with "Summer in the City" (1970). Throughout his subsequent global acclaim as a director, Wenders has doggedly maintained his life as a photographer. In fact, the two careers have served each other well, as many of his photographs are created while location-scouting for films. His image repertoire of neglected industrial buildings, vacant lots, cemeteries, dilapidated urban niches and courtyards expresses a mixture of bemusement, melancholy and dislocation. "When you travel a lot, and when you love to just wander around and get lost, you can end up in the strangest spots," Wenders says. "It must be some sort of built-in radar that often directs me to places that are strangely quiet, or quietly strange." These strange and quiet color photographs are accompanied by poetic captions, some of which elucidate what is depicted while others lightly supplement with an anecdote. This new edition of "Places, Strange and Quiet "features seven new photographs taken in Germany and Fukushima as well as an essay by Wenders on analogue and digital photography.

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Louise Fitzhugh: Collins Modern Classics: Harriet the Spy

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First published by HarperCollinsUS in 1964, this classic children's novel has sold over 4 million copies and was awarded the New York Times Outstanding Book Award. Sixth-grader Harriet attends school on the New York's Upper East Side along with her two best pals, Sport and Janie. After school every day, she takes her notebook and proceeds through her spy route. Harriet observes the rich lady who never gets out of bed; the man with twenty-five cats and the Italian family who runs a grocery store. She writes brutally honest notes on them all. Harriet's downfall is that she also writes notes about people she actually knows...After a game in the park when her notebook is knocked out of her hands and read by her classmates, Harriet's innermost thoughts are revealed and she is shunned by all her classmates, who form the Spycatcher's Club. After her parents find out what's happened, Harriet receives a final, crushing blow. She is no longer allowed to take notes - her parents, her teacher and even the cook search her every day for a contraband notebook. Harriet's only consolation is the love and the wise advice of her nanny who manages to get her through this difficult period in her life. A classic in the US where it was first published and a major motion film from Paramount, Harriet the Spy is a beloved book throughout the world.

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PhD Kelly A Turner,Joyce Bean: Radical Remission: Surviving Cancer Against All Odds

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Early in her career, Kelly Turner, Ph.D., a researcher, lecturer, and counselor in integrative oncology, was shocked to discover that no one was studying episodes of radical remission, when people recover against all odds without the help of conventional medicine, or after conventional medicine has failed. She was so fascinated by this kind of remission that she spent eight years traveling through ten countries to learn what factors that people experiencing this phenomenon encountered. Her evidence presents nine factors she believes can help even terminal patients turn their lives around. They are: Radically changing your diet Deepening your spiritual connection Increasing positive emotions Releasing suppressed emotions Taking herbs and vitamins Using intuition to help inform health decisions Taking control of one's health Having strong reasons to live Receiving social support Every chapter of "Radical Remission" includes a dramatic story of one person's journey back to wellness. The insight that the possibilities for healing are more abundant than we had previously known will give people concrete ways to defy the prognosis of terminal cancer. It chronicles people from all walks of life, and from all over the world. This is an audiobook for those who are in the midst of receiving conventional cancer treatment, who are looking for other options because that treatment has done all that it can, but who still have hope."

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Jonathan Stroud: The Whispering Skull

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In the six months since Anthony, Lucy, and George survived a night in the most haunted house in England, Lockwood & Co. hasn't made much progress. Quill Kipps and his team of Fittes agents keep swooping in on Lockwood's investigations. Finally, in a fit of anger, Anthony challenges his rival to a contest: the next time the two agencies compete on a job, the losing side will have to admit defeat in the Times newspaper. Things look up when a new client, Mr. Saunders, hires Lockwood & Co. to be present at the excavation of Edmund Bickerstaff, a Victorian doctor who reportedly tried to communicate with the dead. Saunders needs the coffin sealed with silver to prevent any supernatural trouble. All goes well-until George's curiosity attracts a horrible phantom. Back home at Portland Row, Lockwood accuses George of making too many careless mistakes. Lucy is distracted by urgent whispers coming from the skull in the ghost jar. Then the team is summoned to DEPRAC headquarters. Kipps is there too, much to Lockwood's annoyance. Bickerstaff's coffin was raided and a strange glass object buried with the corpse has vanished. Inspector Barnes believes the relic to be highly dangerous, and he wants it found. The author of the blockbuster Bartimaeus series delivers another amusing, chilling, and ingeniously plotted entry in the critically acclaimed Lockwood & Co. series. Praise for The Screaming Staircase "This story will keep you reading late into the night, but you'll want to leave the lights on. Stroud is a genius at inventing an utterly believable world which is very much like ours, but so creepily different. Put The Screaming Staircase on your 'need to read' list!" -Rick Riordan "A pleasure from tip to tail, this is the book you hand the advanced readers that claim they'd rather read Paradise Lost than Harry Potter. Smart as a whip, funny, witty, and honestly frightening at times, Stroud lets loose and gives readers exactly what they want. Ghosts, kids on their own without adult supervision, and loads of delicious cookies." -Elizabeth Bird, School Library Journal "Stroud shows his customary flair for blending deadpan humor with thrilling action, and the fiery interplay among the three agents of Lockwood & Co. invigorates the story (along with no shortage of creepy moments)." -Publishers Weekly Praise for The Whispering Skull *"An occult portal and its spectral guardian nearly cut short the careers of three rising young ghost hunters in this madcap sequel to The Screaming Staircase (2013). For all their internecine squabbling, the three protagonists make a redoubtable team-and their supporting cast, led by the sneering titular skull in a jar, adds color and complications aplenty. Rousing adventures for young tomb robbers and delvers into realms better left to the dead." -Kirkus Reviews (starred review) *"Stroud writes with a fine ear for dialog, a wry sense of humor, and a knack for describing haunted places. Creating tension that ebbs and flows, he slowly builds the dramatic narrative to a resounding crescendo, and he makes the quieter scenes that follow just as compelling." -Booklist (starred review)

Many countries use and apply the common law. The common law world largely operates through statutes enacted by a country's democratic legislature. These statutes are drafted and interpreted according to a uniform system of rules, presumptions, principles and canons evolved over centuries by common law judges. In this book, Francis Bennion distills forty years of his prolific writings on statute law and statutory interpretation to provide valuable guidance on statutory interpretation applicable to all common law jurisdictions. Pastors with a passion for sound exposition have joined forces with scholars with pastoral hearts to produce this exciting new commentary series. These volumes, informed by the best of recent evangelical scholarship, expound the implications of The Whispering Skull ebook pdf each New Testament book for today's church. Within the unique series format, pastors, teachers and Bible study leaders alike will find clear, forceful presentations of the heart of each New Testament author's message, coupled with helpful attention to tough exegetical issues. Seldom have such readable commentary and solid help been available in the same volume.

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Patrick O'Brian: The Thirteen-Gun Salute

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Captain Jack Aubrey sets sail for the South China Sea with a new lease on life. Following his dismissal from the Royal Navy (a false accusation), he has earned reinstatement through his daring exploits as a privateer, brilliantly chronicled in The Letter of Marque. Now he is to shepherd Stephen Maturin-his friend, ship's surgeon, and sometimes intelligence agent-on a diplomatic mission to prevent links between Bonaparte and the Malay princes which would put English merchant shipping at risk. The journey of the Diane encompasses a great and satisfying diversity of adventures. Maturin climbs the Thousand Steps of the sacred crater of the orangutans; a killer typhoon catches Aubrey and his crew trying to work the Diane off a reef; and in the barbaric court of Pulo Prabang a classic duel of intelligence agents unfolds: the French envoys, well entrenched in the Sultan's good graces, against the savage cunning of Stephen Maturin.

"So wrong for each other...and yet so right." 1942. Sixteen-year-old Poppy Percival turns up at the gates of Trout's clothing factory in Bethnal Green with no idea what her new life might have in store. There to start work as a seamstress and struggling to get to grips with the noise, dirt and devastation of East London, Poppy can't help but miss the quiet countryside of home. But Poppy harbours a dark secret - one that wrenched her away from all she knew and from which she is still suffering ...And Poppy's not the only one with a secret. Each of her new friends at the factory is The Thirteen-Gun Salute free download pdf hiding something painful. Vera Shadwell, the forelady, has had a hard life with scars both visible and concealed; her sister Daisy has romantic notions that could get her in trouble; and Sal Fowler, a hardworking mother who worries about her two evacuated boys for good reason. Bound by ties of friendship, loyalty and family, the devastating events of the war will throw each of their lives into turmoil but also bring these women closer to each other than they could ever have imagined.

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Louise Searle,Stephanie Gilmore: The Surf Girl Handbook: Everything You Need to Know About Surfing

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This new edition of the "The Surf Girl Handbook" has been revised and updated with fresh photos and additional sections. Whether you're a complete beginner or a standout ripper at your local break, "The Surf Girl Handbook" will help you to take your surfing to the next level. Packed with practical information, stunning photos and insider tips from the pros, "The Surf Girl Handbook" is an essential reference for any surf girl. It's like having your own personal surf instructor, lifestyle coach and fitness guru all in one book! "The book isolates the key maneuvers and breaks them down, offering just the right amount of guidance so as not to make it too confusing," writes top Australian surfer Sally Fitzgibbons in the foreword. "The photos really get your adrenaline pumping. "The Surf Girl Handbook" will inspire you to get out there and do it yourself." Packed with more than 500 color photos, the book includes sections on fitness, diet, travel, equipment, swell prediction, surfing etiquette, technique and the ocean environment.

Incomer - Japanese-style, right-to-left reading! If you're excited about the upcoming Disney film Beauty and the Beast, starring Emma Watson, don't miss Cruel Beauty. The romance of Beauty and the Beast meets the adventure of Graceling in this dazzling fantasy novel about our deepest desires and their power to change our destiny. Perfect for fans of bestselling An Ember in the Ashes and A Court of Thorns Sacred Evil free ebook and Roses, this gorgeously written debut infuses the classic fairy tale with glittering magic, a feisty heroine, and a romance sure to take your breath away. Betrothed to the evil ruler of her kingdom, Nyx has always known that her fate was to marry him, kill him, and free her people from his tyranny. But on her seventeenth birthday when she moves into his castle high on the kingdom's mountaintop, nothing is what she expected-particularly her charming and beguiling new husband. Nyx knows she must save her homeland at all costs, yet she can't resist the pull of her sworn enemy-who's gotten in her way by stealing her heart.

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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"Fooled by Randomness "is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are "The Black Swan, Antifragile, "and "The Bed of Procrustes." [Taleb is] Wall Street s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church. Malcolm Gladwell, "The New Yorker" Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill the world of business Fooled by Randomness" "is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives."

Until Dr. Barnard's scientific breakthrough, most health professionals believed that once you developed diabetes, you were stuck with it and could anticipate one complication after another, from worsening eyesight and nerve symptoms to heart and kidney problems. But as this groundbreaking work reveals, this simply is not true. In a series of studies the most recent funded by the National Institutes of Health Dr. Barnard has shown that it is possible to repair insulin function and reverse type 2 diabetes. By following the scientifically proven, life-changing program described in Dr. Neal Barnard's Program Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets download ebook pdf for Reversing Diabetes, diabetics can control blood sugar three times more effectively than with the standard diet; and cut back on and in some cases eliminate medications while reducing the risk of diabetes complications.

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Peter Ferdinand Drucker: Post-Capitalist Society

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Business guru Peter Drucker provides an incisive analysis of the major world transformation taking place, from the Age of Capitalism to the Knowledge Society, and examines the radical affects it will have on society, politics, and business now and in the coming years.

*Activities outside the parks For when you want to leave the Disney magic. An updated edition of the bestselling collection of timeless wisdom from the world's greatest investor Readers of Warren Buffett's letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have gained an enormously valuable informal education in the art of investing. Broad in scope and long on wisdom, Buffett's letters explain his principles on sound investing, selecting managers, valuing businesses, using financial information Post-Capitalist Society pdf profitably, and other vital topics for investors. This newly updated Fourth Edition includes Buffett's latest wisdom on such topics as the financial crisis, the housing bubble, corporate governance, Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the role of oversight in heavily regulated industries, today's best investing opportunities, and the weaknesses of popular option valuation models.

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ABRSM: Piano Scales & Arpeggios, Grade 4

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This edition contains all the scales and broken chords required for the Grade 4 ABRSM Piano exam. Provides suggested fingering and a helpful introduction including advice on preparing for the exam.

Wargaming can be a very expensive hobby, but it needn't be. Iain Dickie, one of the best-known names in the hobby shares dozens of hints and tips on how to cut the cost of your gaming and get 'more bang for your buck'. He offers sound practical advice on buying and building your armies (should you opt for metal, plastic, or even card, and in which scale?), gaming tables, terrain, buildings and even storage solutions. As well as purely financial constraints, Iain Dickie also recognizes the fact that available space is another major restriction for many gamers and tackles this issue too. Now you've no excuse not to get wargaming!After 25 years as editor of Miniature Wargames magazine, Iain Dickie is one of the best known names in the hobby. He's even been on the telly, appearing alongside Angela Rippon in Games of War. He has recently retired as editor and intends Piano Scales & Arpeggios, Grade 4 download ebook pdf to spend his time between writing and sailing and, of course, wargaming.

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